Israel has recently witnessed a significant build-up of troops, including 100,000 troops and numerous tanks, on the border with Gaza. This militarization is widely seen as preparation for an imminent land attack on the Palestinian territory. In the aftermath of an unexpected attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas that claimed the lives of more than 900 Israelis, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “full offense” against Hamas, vowing to use all available means to destroy their military capabilities. What seemed unimaginable just a few days ago—Israel launching a large-scale ground invasion of the Gaza Strip—is now eagerly anticipated.
We examine what can be expected from Israel’s declared war against Hamas and the subsequent consequences it will have on Israel, Gaza, and the wider region.
1. A long, ground operation is likely
Experts believe that a ground invasion is increasingly probable, considering that airstrikes alone will not be sufficient to achieve Israel’s objectives. Yaakov Lappin, an Israel-based military analyst, suggests that an extensive ground operation involving infantry, armored artillery units, close cooperation with the Air Force, intense urban warfare, and targeted elimination of Hamas leaders and operatives can be expected. While the ultimate duration of Israel’s military response is uncertain, it is expected to continue over the coming weeks and months.
2. Difficult fighting lies ahead
If Israeli troops enter Gaza, they will face the challenging task of engaging an adversary that is familiar with the terrain and has a history of hiding behind the civilian population. Hamas has spent years preparing for such a confrontation, establishing an elaborate network of tunnels that crisscross Gaza. These tunnels serve as a means of transportation, hiding spots, and communication channels, increasing the complexity of military operations for Israel. However, despite these challenges, experts believe that Israel’s military capabilities significantly surpass those of Hamas.
3. Hostage situations complicate the conflict
Hamas’s capture of dozens of captives introduces a complex dynamic to the conflict. While the Israeli government remains focused on delivering an overwhelming response, Hamas may exploit the hostages—both as bargaining chips and human shields. The potential loss of hostages raises important political considerations for Israel, including the risk of setting a precedent that could encourage further hostage-taking activities in the future.
4. Potential involvement of Hezbollah
Concerns are growing that Hezbollah, Hamas’s ally in Lebanon, may become more directly involved in the conflict. Recent exchanges of strikes along Israel’s northern border highlight the risk of the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially escalating into a regional war. Hezbollah’s actions thus far have demonstrated solidarity with Hamas while avoiding a full-blown conflict with Israel. However, as Palestinian casualties continue to rise, pressure may mount on Hezbollah to exhibit stronger support for the Palestinian cause.
5. Uncertain future for Gaza
As the war intensifies, it remains unclear who will control Gaza if Hamas’s political and military wings are dismantled. Some experts fear that the extensive destruction might radicalize a new generation of Gazans. Potential scenarios include Israeli military administration of Gaza or recurring military operations by Israel to weaken future iterations of Hamas. Alternatively, there is hope that the more moderate Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, can regain control over Gaza.
While Hamas can expect significant losses in terms of fighters and military capabilities, it is unlikely that the group can be entirely wiped out. As Michael Eisenstadt, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, emphasizes, “you can’t destroy an idea.”
As Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza, the implications of this conflict stretch far beyond the immediate consequences for the region. The international community awaits the outcome, which will undoubtedly shape the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and impact relations in the Middle East.
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