Few could have anticipated the bitter twist of fate that befell Imran Khan, Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, as he was found guilty of corruption, handed a three-year prison sentence, and barred from contesting elections for the next five years. Khan’s relentless quest to root out corruption from Pakistan’s political fabric has been his defining legacy, and the recent court ruling against him only adds a layer of irony to his story.
The ruling against Khan was not entirely unexpected, considering his removal from office and his strained relationship with the military, which he held responsible for his downfall. Many believed that it was only a matter of time before Khan faced harsher consequences.
As Pakistan’s ruling coalition prepares to step down and make way for a caretaker government, Khan’s incarceration is seen as the final piece of unfinished business before the upcoming general elections. These elections are set to take place within 90 days or could be postponed until Spring 2024, depending on a decision by the Council of Common Interests on August 5, 2023. This decision primarily focuses on approving the demarcation of new constituencies based on the latest census data – a calculated maneuver by the influential military, aimed at diminishing Khan’s soaring popularity.
The haste in obtaining a ruling against Khan is evident, and the lack of due process surrounding it has drawn widespread condemnation. Khan’s political adversaries in the ruling coalition and his former backers in the military were determined not to take any chances that could jeopardize their plans to disqualify him from parliament and eradicate any chance of him returning to power.
While this undemocratic move may succeed, it is worth noting that the response to Khan’s arrest has been relatively restrained compared to the violent protests triggered by his initial arrest earlier this year. The Biden Administration has declared this matter to be an internal affair, making it clear that the United States is unlikely to intervene on Khan’s behalf.
Khan is potentially capable of securing a fresh judicial reprieve or regaining the confidence of the military leadership by moderating his anti-military rhetoric. However, neither scenario seems likely, especially for a man in his eighties.
Regardless of Khan’s individual fate, his brand of right-wing populism, centered around the idea of a savior dedicated to safeguarding the public from corrupt politicians, will endure for years to come. This narrative has been carefully crafted and fostered by Pakistan’s military over several decades, ultimately becoming an instrument of political influence that transcends the fortunes of any single leader. Notably, even Khan and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, once the military’s favored candidates, found themselves branded as “corrupt” politicians once they had fallen out of favor with their military sponsors.
Khan’s arrest serves as a stark reminder for Pakistan to reevaluate this narrative and chart a new trajectory. There are indications that a significant portion of the population, particularly the country’s expanding urban and youthful demographics, is growing weary of this prevailing narrative. It is crucial to channel their energies, as they make up Khan’s core constituency, and leaving them marginalized in the wake of his disqualification or, worse, a ban on his party, the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI), would not be prudent.
Opinion polls consistently highlight Khan as Pakistan’s most popular political figure, and the recent local government by-elections in Peshawar, where the PTI triumphed over the government-backed candidate, further affirm his significant support base.
While the military’s historical influence over Pakistan’s political landscape has often superseded electoral outcomes, it would be imprudent to ignore its implications against the backdrop of extreme political polarization. Establishing even a semblance of credibility for future elections necessitates providing a voice for the millions of Pakistanis who have unequivocally expressed their impatience with conventional political manipulation.
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