In today’s geopolitical landscape, it is crucial to understand the enduring nature of Ukraine’s defense against Russia. While we hope for a just and lasting resolution to the conflict, it is imprudent to base our strategy solely on this hope. It is imperative to prepare for the long-haul, considering Russia’s continued threat to Ukraine and NATO in the foreseeable future. As the United States prioritizes readiness for a conflict with China in the Western Pacific, it is essential to examine how to prevent Russia from subordinating Ukraine, while also acknowledging the utmost importance of prioritizing China and Asia in our military, geopolitical, and economic efforts.
Understanding the potential for a war in the Western Pacific this decade, it becomes clear that the consequences of losing such a conflict would be catastrophic. However, the urgency, scale, and focus required in preparing for this are lacking. Rectifying this situation should be the overriding priority of U.S. efforts. Allocating resources, such as strike weapons and defensive systems, specifically geared towards countering a potential Chinese attack along the first island chain, is paramount. This includes both offensive and defensive weaponry, as well as non-weapon related support like financial aid, intelligence resources, defense industrial base attention, and capacity.
Although our focus must be on the Pacific, the United States must not neglect its interest in supporting Ukraine. If Russia successfully subsumes Ukraine or weakens it to the point of enabling attacks against NATO, it would pose a direct threat to Europe, jeopardizing regional stability. It is in America’s best interest to prevent such an outcome by ensuring Ukraine’s effective self-defense.
To support Ukraine effectively while prioritizing Pacific defense preparedness, the United States should incentivize European nations to take the lead in assisting Ukraine. European countries possess the capacity to contribute significantly to Ukraine’s defense and should be encouraged to rearm themselves and arm Ukraine according to strategic reality. By changing their incentives and elevating the efforts of key countries like Poland, while exerting pressure on laggards such as Germany, Washington can prompt Europe to assume a more substantial role in supporting Ukraine’s defense.
Simultaneously, the United States can still play a focused role in directly aiding Ukraine. By reallocating military resources that are ill-suited for an Asia-Pacific conflict but useful for Ukraine, they can provide effective assistance. Retiring aircraft like A-10s, F-16s, and earlier variants of the F-15 and F/A-18, along with ground combat systems and munitions, can significantly impact Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities. Moreover, as Europe takes primary responsibility for its conventional defense, the U.S. can provide Ukraine with advanced ground combat systems that are ideal for the European theater.
In addition to the reallocation of existing resources, there is an opportunity for the United States to resuscitate its defense industrial base. By investing in the rapid production of a wide range of weapons and platforms on a larger scale, America can not only better arm its own forces but also shoulder the responsibility of arming allies to defend themselves effectively.
Ukraine’s survival is of utmost importance in preventing Moscow from subordinating the nation and posing a direct threat to Europe. However, this must be accomplished in a manner consistent with the urgent priority of preparing for a potential conflict in the Pacific. By encouraging Europe to assume greater responsibility, providing direct aid through the allocation of suitable resources, and resuscitating the defense industrial base, the United States can strike a prudent and effective balance in addressing both European security and Pacific defense preparedness.
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