President Volodymyr Zelensky had high hopes for the recent NATO summit in Vilnius, aiming to convey Ukraine’s firm message on membership aspirations. Although the outcomes fell short of immediate expectations, Ukraine finds itself closer to achieving NATO membership, a prospect that seems increasingly inevitable to Alliance members.
Ukrainians have compelling reasons to advocate for their inclusion in NATO. They have met most of the criteria set for aspiring members and have strenuously proven their commitment to Euro-Atlantic security, even at the cost of their own blood. In Ukraine’s view, their battle against Russia transcends mere national survival and embodies the fight for the collective interests of Europe.
This perspective bears merit. Ukraine has effectively diminished Russia’s conventional military strength, effectively neutralizing a potential threat to NATO. Notably, they have incapacitated 60 percent of Russia’s modern main battle tanks. It is worth noting that a historical examination of the Russian Empire in the late 19th century includes vast territories encompassing not only most of present-day Ukraine but also Finland, the Baltic states, and a substantial part of Poland.
Considering Putin’s territorial ambitions, one may ponder if he truly aims solely at Ukraine or if he may have designs on eastern Estonia. Although the likelihood of such actions remains slim, it is not entirely dismissible, echoing the sentiments of analysts who warned of a large-scale Russian assault on Ukraine back in 2020.
However, Ukraine’s anticipation of an invitation or a specified timeline for NATO accession was unrealistic. The ongoing conflict with Russia, while unresolved, poses significant challenges to Ukraine’s potential membership. President Joe Biden and other allied leaders share this viewpoint, emphasizing the need for resolution before the question of Ukraine’s NATO inclusion becomes fully viable.
Nonetheless, President Zelensky will return to Ukraine with concrete gains from the Vilnius summit. NATO has committed to a multi-year program providing comprehensive assistance to the Ukrainian military. This includes significant contributions from France and Germany, such as Scalp cruise missiles, increased armored vehicles, and Patriot air defense systems. Furthermore, Ukrainian pilots will commence F-16 flight training next month.
Moreover, the leaders of the G7 countries have pledged to establish bilateral arrangements with Ukraine to support its ongoing conflict with Russia and, once peace is restored, aid in the development of a modern and robust military capable of deterring any future Russian aggression. President Biden explicitly emphasized this commitment during his address at the University of Vilnius. While these G7 pledges cannot be the ultimate solution for Ukraine’s security concerns, they represent an essential interim step on the path towards the most effective guarantor of Ukraine’s stability: NATO membership.
Although President Zelensky did not secure a concrete date for membership, the Vilnius summit has reflected a notable shift in mood across the Alliance. The 2008 NATO Bucharest summit declaration, while initially unconvincing, served as a last-minute appeasement gesture towards then-President George Bush, who had failed in his attempt to achieve NATO consensus for a membership action plan (MAP) for Ukraine.
It is noteworthy that many who were opposed to Ukraine receiving a MAP back then did so out of regard for Russia’s concerns. However, this deference did not prevent Russia from illegally annexing Crimea, instigating a bitter conflict in Donbas, or launching a full-scale invasion that turned the Russia-Ukraine confrontation into Europe’s largest and bloodiest war since World War II.
The Kremlin, through its ruthless and aggressive actions, has forfeited any legitimate claim to deference regarding Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.
Next year, NATO leaders will gather for a landmark summit, commemorating 75 years since the establishment of the Alliance and 25 years since the first former Warsaw Pact states joined its ranks. It is imperative that NATO and Ukraine begin engaging in constructive discussions within the newly formed NATO-Ukraine Council, outlining specific pathways to advance Ukraine’s membership aspirations. While it may not be possible to determine precise dates, practical steps to deepen integration, such as stationing additional Ukrainian liaison officers at NATO headquarters in Brussels and subordinate commands, should be considered.
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