July 10, 2023 at 07:38PM
As the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, draws near, one pressing matter that will take center stage is Ukraine’s long-standing aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Established in 1949 during the Cold War, NATO is a defense alliance comprising 31 countries committed to mutual military support in the event of an attack on any member. The organization requires unanimous approval from all member states for the admission of new countries.
President Joe Biden’s recent remarks in a CNN interview ahead of his Europe tour have set the tone for discussions to come. Addressing the issue, he emphasized that it would be premature to initiate the process for Ukraine’s inclusion at this stage. President Biden highlighted the significance of Ukraine’s war coming to an end before considering the country’s membership, as laid out in NATO’s Article 5, which ensures mutual defense during conflicts.
The US-Ukraine policy disagreement has complicated matters further, including the controversial decision by the US to agree to supply cluster bombs. These actions and the expansion of NATO along Russia’s Western border are believed to have contributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine last year.
Ukraine’s leadership has consistently emphasized the importance of joining NATO. They firmly believe that had Ukraine become a member in 2008, the likelihood of Russian aggression would have been significantly reduced. Consequently, securing NATO membership remains a priority for Ukraine.
While NATO member countries may agree in principle to Ukraine’s eventual membership, the timelines could extend longer than Ukraine anticipates. Considering the ongoing conflict and territorial occupations, NATO cannot extend a firm membership prospect to a country under such circumstances, according to defense and international affairs expert Martin Smith.
Although a concrete date for Ukraine’s NATO membership seems unlikely, discussions during the summit may lead to compromise language that indicates progress. This could emphasize that Ukraine is moving closer to membership, even if immediate inclusion is not feasible.
The resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could potentially impact the path toward NATO membership. Negotiations, including conditions set by Russia, might influence the end of the war and subsequent decisions regarding Ukraine’s association with NATO.
Despite the uncertainties, the summit is expected to yield further military pledges and support for Ukraine. A new, multi-year program of assistance for Ukraine is anticipated, along with increased political ties through the establishment of a NATO-Ukraine Council. Furthermore, discussions on bilateral military and economic assistance between Ukraine and individual NATO member states are ongoing.
As the NATO summit approaches, the issue of Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership will take center stage. While the path toward membership is laden with challenges and geopolitical complexities, the summit is expected to provide further assistance and support for Ukraine, reinforcing NATO’s commitment to the country. The ultimate outcome will shape the future of Ukraine’s security and its relationship with NATO.
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