The recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, saw an unexpected turn of events with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lifting his veto on Sweden’s NATO membership bid. This significant development came after a series of negotiations, including discussions with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The decision has raised questions about Sweden’s longstanding bid and its implications for both NATO and the European Union (EU). In this blog post, we will delve into the history and factors surrounding Sweden’s NATO membership bid, shed light on Erdoğan’s concerns, and explore the concessions made to finally secure Sweden’s accession.
For over two centuries, Sweden has maintained a policy of military non-alignment. This stance originated from the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars when the country broke ties with France and allowed the United Kingdom to use Swedish Pomerania as a military base. Subsequently, Sweden found itself engulfed in conflicts instigated by Napoleon, leading to its withdrawal from power politics in Northern Europe. Since then, Sweden has navigated European politics independently, although it dropped formal neutrality after joining the EU in 1995. Despite its participation in the EU, Sweden continued to retain certain characteristics of its historic non-alignment policy.
Sweden’s position on NATO membership began to evolve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea and subsequent aggression prompted a significant shift in public sentiment, with a Gallup poll revealing that 74% of Swedes supported joining NATO. This change in perception, coupled with concerns over Russia’s actions, laid the groundwork for Sweden’s bid to become a full member of the alliance.
President Erdoğan’s veto on Sweden’s NATO membership bid stemmed from two primary concerns: the presence of Kurdish exiles associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Quran burning incidents in Sweden. The Turkish government deems the PKK a terrorist group, and Erdoğan accused Sweden of harboring Kurdish exiles affiliated with the organization. Additionally, Quran burning incidents in Sweden created tensions between the two countries, with Erdoğan emphasizing Turkey’s strong opposition to terrorism and Islamophobia.
To address Erdoğan’s concerns, Sweden worked collaboratively with Turkey and Finland. The trilateral memorandum, agreed upon during the last NATO summit in Madrid, outlined specific areas of focus for securing Sweden’s entry. Turkey’s requests included arms deliveries, stronger anti-terrorism legislation, and increased collaboration on extradition requests. Sweden responded positively, enhancing anti-terrorism legislation in June 2022. Additionally, discussions have taken place on the possibility of amending Sweden’s laws regarding Quran burning incidents, demonstrating a willingness to address Erdoğan’s concerns and maintain a positive relationship.
Erdoğan’s decision to lift the veto on Sweden’s membership bid paves the way for further processes and negotiations. The timeline for Sweden’s accession to NATO is still uncertain, as it requires the signing and ratification of the Accession Protocol by all member states. However, experts believe that Sweden’s inclusion in NATO will strengthen the alliance, enhance overall security, and promote greater military collaboration and operational planning.
Sweden’s journey toward NATO membership has been complex, shaped by its historical non-alignment policy and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Recent developments regarding Erdoğan’s U-turn and Sweden’s commitment to addressing Turkish concerns signify a new chapter in Sweden’s NATO aspirations. As the process unfolds, it will be crucial to monitor the negotiations and their impact on both NATO and the EU. The decision to include Sweden has the potential to strengthen NATO politically and safeguard against common security challenges, benefiting the entire alliance.
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